CIEE has expanded the lens for assessing risk to include a multitude of inputs and indicators that better inform our senior leadership team on the relative safety of supporting students and staff in a particular region, country, and city. Among the variables we use in our assessments is the CIEE Health Risk Index (CIEE HRI or HRI), a snapshot of safety considerations in countries impacted by COVID-19. The index is calculated using multiple metrics (including prevalence of the virus, infection rates, transmission types, slope of new daily cases and mortality rates, health infrastructure ratings, and more) derived from multiple sources (WHO, Johns Hopkins, Worldometer, Department of State, Centers for Disease Control, DOMO, Global Health Survey, paid and open source intelligence services, and our own analytical tools).
The column on the far right of the Health Index Report, is our Health Recency Report or HRR. This metric represents reported new cases during the last 14 days per 100,000 people, and is provided so CIEE and stakeholders can compare the current level of community transmission, normalized by population.
About the HRI:
- The index is a numerical value from 1 to 100 where higher numbers indicate higher risk as assessed by our calculations.
- The lower the number, the fewer risk factors that will require mitigation.
- Arrows represent changes to the index of greater than two points - green arrows if the change was in the direction of lower risk; red if the change was in the direction of increased risk.
- The values are for comparative purposes only and are calculated weekly or biweekly so we may assess changes over time.
- The values do not represent absolute risk, and there are no universal thresholds at which CIEE would or would not run a program.
- Data is provisional and subject to change. Some risk values for past weeks may change occasionally as countries and/or data source sites update their past data to reflect more accurate information such as case and death counts for specific days.
About the HRR:
- The HRR does not take into account past cumulative infections beyond 14 days or any other risk factors, only provides insight into real-time community spread.
- The minimum value for the HRR is zero, as that would represent virtually no community spread in the last 14 days.
- The larger the HRR value, the more people being infected daily in that country.
- CIEE has aligned the HRR step metric system with the ECDC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control) 14-day new cases per 100,000 system.
- Fewer than 20 new cases per 100K means low transmission and appears as green in the table above.
- HRR of 20 – 59.9 indicates moderate transmission and appears yellow
- HRR of 60-119.9 indicates high transmission and appears light orange
- HRR greater than 120 means very high transmission and appears as dark orange.
Community Transmission (HRR) by Country
In the figure above you can see how the level of community transmission (as measured by new cases in the past 14 days per 100,000 people) in different countries compares with community spread in the United States as a whole (the red line). Because local COVID-19 impact is wildly variable across the United States, for additional comparison, there are lines to indicate community spread in different states, including the state with the lowest community transmission (Hawaii with 103 cases per 100,000) and the highest community spread (North Dakota with 2,029 cases per 100,000).
Health Risk Indices by Region
Below are four figures offering an additional way to visualize the changes to the HRI over time. Each figure shows the HRI from April 13 through November 16 for countries within a region and, for comparison, the United States. In each figure, the y-axis shows HRI values from 0 - 100. Because a lower HRI value indicates a lower risk as assessed by our calculations, a downward slope represents a decrease in risk (a.k.a. an improvement in conditions).
Africa & Middle East
- Jordan – Showed a decrease in risk since the last report.
- South Africa – Showed an increase in risk since the last report, with a rise in daily new cases that began in mid-November.
- Japan – Showed an increase in risk since the last report, with a rise in daily new cases that began in late October and deaths in mid-November. Amid a spike in COVID-19 cases, on Nov. 25, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike asked restaurants, bars, and karaoke outlets to close by 10:00 (local time) from Nov. 28 until Dec. 17. Koike also urged residents of the capital to stay at home as much as possible.
- South Korea – Showed an increase in risk since the last report, with a rise in daily new cases that began in mid-November. South Korean authorities announced on Nov. 29, that several COVID-19 related restrictions have been tightened as well as a ban issued for all end of year parties due to the rise in the number of cases of the virus in the country.
- Czech Republic – Showed a decrease in risk since the last report. The Czech Health Minister Jan Blatny announced on Nov. 29, that certain COVID-19 restrictions will be removed from Dec. 3, amid a recent decrease in the number of new infections.
- England – Showed a decrease in risk since the last report.
- France – Showed a decrease in risk since the last report. French President Emmanuel Macron has announced that restrictions in place to limit the spread of COVID-19 are to be eased in three phases, starting from Nov. 28.
- Germany – Showed an increase in risk since the last report, with a rise in daily new cases and deaths that began in mid-October. German authorities announced on Nov. 30, that domestic COVID-19 restrictions have been extended until at least Dec. 20.
- Portugal – Showed a decrease in risk since the last report.
- Spain – Showed a decrease in risk since the last report.
- Argentina – Showed a decrease in risk since the last report.
- Dominican Republic – Showed an increase in risk since the last report, with a rise in daily new cases that began in mid-November.
- Mexico – Showed an increase in risk since the last report, with a rise in daily new cases and deaths that began in late November.
- United States – The U.S. remains the global-leader in total and active COVID-19 cases with 14,039,732 total cumulative cases, and 5,476,501 active cases. It also is the nation with the most fatalities due to COVID-19, with 275,958 total deaths. The U.S. also continues to experience a significant number of daily new cases with a current 7-day moving average of 163,000+ new cases daily, and a 7-day moving average of 1,500+ deaths daily. For additional perspective, the US has a current HRR value of 751 (meaning there were 751 new cases per 100,000 people within the last two weeks). It is worth noting that this count/average is for the entire country, and there is great variance in localized severity of impact between states and even within each state. The state least impacted is Hawaii (103 cases per 100,000) and the greatest impacted state is North Dakota (2,029 cases per 100,000). Without a national disease management strategy, individual states are each managing the presence of COVID-19 differently, with varying degrees of success in controlling the spread of coronavirus infection.